Selected p-Indicator success stories (For more details about the p-Indicator click here .)

Please read our disclaimer. This material is provided for informational purposes only. This material may not be suitable for all investors or traders and is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities. These are examples of p-Indicator calculations for SPY and other ETFs.  Different T/S files are used with the following values (target/stop): 1%/1%, 2%/2%, 5%/5% and 7%/7%. Positions are at the next open. The parameters shown on the program output are defined as follows: C indicates whether %, points or Next Close for the exits. TS indicates the T/S file used in the calculations, P-long is the p-Indicator value for long positions, P-short is the value for short positions, P-delta is the difference P-long minus P-short and S the significance of the calculated values.
 

11/22/2011 Another huge success of the p-indicator (and of the scan function). It signaled the market rally on 11/28/2011:

http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2011/11/stock-market-a-short-term-reversal-to-the-upside-is-highly-probable/

10/03/2011 Another huge success of the p-indicator. It signaled the market rebound on 10/04/2011:

http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2011/10/spy-qqq-early-signs-of-a-rebound/

09/08/2011 Another huge success of the p-indicator. It signaled the market correction on 9/09/2011:

p-indicator-results-for-qqq-and-spy-point-to-a-negative-short-term-bias/

07/19/2011 Another huge success of the p-indicator. It signaled the strong reversal rally in SPY:

p-indicator Calculations Indicate High Probability for a Short-Term Market Rally

07/15/2011 Another p-indicator success Winning Probabilities for Buying at the Open and Selling at the Close for SPY and QQQ

07/12/2011: Another p-Indicator success story. p-indicator results for SPY indicate a high probability for a short-term rally

06/23/2011: Reversal Signals from the p-Indicator

06/20/2011: A Rare Strong Signal from the p-Indicator

The results of 06/09/2011 indicated a short-term reversal to the downside for SPY across 2 of the profit target/stop-loss pairs used. A negative bias was calculated for 1%/1% and 2%/2% with high significance. SPY closed down -1.4% on 06/10/2011. Click here for the screenshot

The results of 05/20/2011 indicated a short-term reversal to the downside for SPY across 3 of the profit target/stop-loss pairs used. A negative bias was calculated for 1%/1%, 2%/2% and 5%/5% with high significance. SPY closed down -1.2% on 05/23/2011. Click here for the screenshot

The results of 04/15/2011 indicated a short-term reversal to the downside for SPY across 3 profit target/stop-loss pairs used. A negative bias was calculated for 1%/1%, 2%/2% and 5%/5%. SPY closed down -1.12%. Click here for the screenshot

The results of 03/04/2011 indicated a short-term reversal to the downside for QQQQ across-the-board in terms of the profit target/stop-loss pairs used. A negative bias was calculated for all four pairs of 1%/1%, 2%/2%, 5%/5% and 7%/7%. QQQQ opened at $57.97 and closed at $57.19, Click here for the screenshot

The results of 02/28/2011 indicated a down close for SPY and QQQQ. These results were based on buying at the close of Monday, February 28, 2011 and closing the position on the close of the next day, Tuesday, March 1, 2011. The p-Indicator showed a negative bias for both SPY and QQQQ, an indication of a possible reversal to the downside. SPY dropped -1.1% and QQQQ -1.4%. Click here for the screenshot

The results of 01/27/2011 indicated a short-term reversal for SPY. Michael Harris wrote in his blog: "The p-indicator calculations indicate a higher probability for a short-term correction in SPY in the ranger of 1% – 2%." SPY opened at 130.14 and closed at 127.72, down 1.86%. Click here for the screenshot

The results of 01/18/2011 indicated a short-term market reversal. Click here for a screenshot of the results. On 01/19/2011 SPY opened at 129.41 and closed at 128.25 (-1.16).

Posted 12/21/2010 after market close. SPY close: 125.39. Click here for a screenshot of p-Indicator results

Comments: The market has been going up on declining volume for the last three sessions. This is normal because traders are preparing for the holidays. As of this close the results indicate that this upward move will continue. In the short-term, the P-delta values are low meaning that the upward bias is not too strong or that there may be volatility and price swings.

The results of 12/06/2010 indicated the market reversal by the close of 12/07/2010. SPY closed at 122.83 after opening at 123.93. Read below for details:

Posted 12/06/2010 after market close. SPY close: 122.76. Click here for a screenshot of p-Indicator results

Comments: The results as of this close show a small probability for a correction to the downside with very high significance. Longer-term bias is positive. Thus we may see some volatility in the next few days with prices falling overall but then, maybe by the the end of this week, another rally. Of course, all these can change by tomorrow. This is the nature of the markets, i.e. constantly changing.

Another huge success of the p-Indicator. It indicated the market reversal to the upside after the close of the third consecutive down day on 11/30/2010. Read below for details:

Posted 11/30/2010 after market close. SPY close: 118.49 (Open: 117.98). Click here for a screenshot of p-Indicator results

Comments: The market tried several times to move into positive territory and stay there with no success and it closed lower. It closed higher than the open by half a point though in line with what the p-indicator showed yesterday. As of this close, all P-delta values have turned positive indicating a reversal to the upside. The significance is low and that may mean that the reversal will not be very strong or that there will be volatility and sign changes.

Another success of the p-Indicator. It indicated the market reversal to the upside after the close of the third consecutive down day on 11/16/2010 and when many were talking about a pending collapse. Read below for details:

Posted 11/16/2010 after market close. SPY close: 118.16. Click here for a screenshot of p-Indicator results

Comments: The p-Indicator results point to an upside reversal. All P-delta values are positive with high significance. This means that historically the market went up about 60% to 70% of the time when similar price action conditions were present. This is of course related to probability. The probability of an event has no relation to the event itself. It is only a measure having to do with its occurrence and its interpretation relies on different notions. When the probability of win is 70% there is still a high chance of loss equal to 30%. It is like tossing a biased coin, for which the probability of heads showing up is 70%. There is always a finite probability of a streak of tails. Thus, one may look at the p-Indicator results on a daily basis but a better and more appropriate approach is based on considering the results over a period of time.