The weekly market reports include a market position update, a stock market forecast, and an analysis of capital markets. To access the full report, you must subscribe to Premium Articles, Weekly Premium Articles, or an All-in-One subscription.
Included in this report:
- Weekly summary.
- Market positioning update.
- Stock market forecast.
- Capital markets update.
1. Weekly Summary (July 22–July 26, 2024)
- After a failed political assassination attempt and a massive IT failure, uncertainty increased this week due to political developments and mixed economic data. Large-cap stocks (SPY) fell 0.8% but finished the week off their lows.
- The fixed-income market came under pressure in the first three days of the week but rebounded after an ex-Fed governor turned dovish from hawkish. Long-duration bonds (TLT) gained 0.1% amid rising volatility.
- Commodities (DBC) fell 1.5% amid expectations of an economic slowdown. For the week, crude oil futures lost 1.9% and gold futures were down 0.6%.
- The US dollar index (UUP) ended the week virtually unchanged.
- Gold (GLD) has outperformed stocks (SPY) since January 3, 2022, with a return of 29.1% versus 19%, respectively.
- Since January 3, 2022, bonds (TLT) have been down 32.2%, while large-caps (SPY) have gained 19%.
- The equally weighted magnificent six stocks fell 3% for the week as the sell-off in overpriced tech stocks accelerated, as part of a broader rotation.
- The utilities sector (XLU) gained the most this week, by 1.5%. Consumer discretionary (XLK) fell by 2.8%.
2. Market positioning update
To provide market position updates, we use two cross-sectional momentum long-only strategies for capital markets and factor ETFs.
Last update: Friday, July 26, 2024, after the market close.
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Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data
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