In the last three years, there has been no “Santa Rally” in bitcoin, neither in the final two weeks of the year nor in the final week. Is there going to be one this year?
In our analysis of the Santa Rally, we ignore the first two days of the new year and focus on two versions: the last two weeks and the last week of the year.
Below is a backtest of the performance of bitcoin in the last week of the year.
Over the past three years, Santa has shown no interest in bitcoin during the final week of the year. The cryptocurrency fell in the last week of the last three years.
Below is a backtest of the performance of bitcoin in the last two weeks of the year.
In the last three years, Santa was also not interested in bitcoin in the last two weeks of the year. The cryptocurrency experienced a decline in the final two weeks of the previous three years.
Since bitcoin’s inception, in the last three years, the Santa Rally has experienced the longest losing streak. Perhaps this year’s strong momentum will lead to a change in this trend. Indeed, there is a strong likelihood of a Santa Rally this year, unless Santa continues to show no interest in cryptocurrencies.
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Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data
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