The reports include a market position update, a stock market forecast, and an analysis of capital markets. To access the full report, you must subscribe to Premium Articles, Weekly Premium Articles, or All-in-One.
Weekly Market Report
- Ensemble performance.
- Weekly summary.
- Update on market positioning.
- Stock market forecast
- Capital markets update.
Section 2 of the report discusses the new “gold rush.” In Section 5, we look at the current price trends in capital markets. There are new signals from the market positioning strategies and the forecasting model for next week.
1. Ensemble performance
We use two long-only cross-sectional momentum strategies to generate signals for capital markets and factor ETFs. See Section 3 below for open positions and signal updates.
Year-to-date, the weekly strategies (WeeklyReport) are down 2.1% (equal allocation, no leverage) versus a loss of 4.9% for the SPY ETF.
Since 2024, the ensemble is up 24.7% versus 18.8% for the SPY ETF. The ensemble’s beta since 2017 is 0.46. There was a maximum drawdown of 17% in 2020 and the annualized return is 8.5%. The Sharpe ratio is 0.77. See Section 3 for details on market positioning.
2. Weekly summary (March 24–March 28, 2025)
- Stocks fell amid rising uncertainty from the impact of tariffs and persisting inflation.
- Large-cap stocks (SPY) ended the week with a 1.5% loss.
- Gold (GLD) moved 2% higher to new, all-time highs.
- Long-duration bonds (TLT) fell amid fears of entrenched inflation.
- Commodities had mixed performance during the week. The DBC ETF added 0.3%. The US dollar (UUP) ended the week unchanged.
- Bitcoin (IBIT) fell 0.3% as the correlation with equities remains high. See below for more details.
- Year-to-date, bonds (TLT) are up 3.9%, while gold (GLD) is gaining 17.3%, and large caps (SPY) are losing 4.9%. Commodities (DVC) are up 3.8%.
- The equally weighted Magnificent Seven stocks index fell 2.1% this week. For the second week in a row, Nvidia (NVDA) experienced the most significant decline, falling 6.8% for the week, while Tesla (TSLA) defied the trend by gaining 6%.
- Market sectors had mixed performance this week, with consumer staples (XLP) gaining the most, by 1.9%. See below for more details.
Sector and asset performance
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Specific disclaimer: This report includes charts that may reference price levels. If market conditions change the price levels or any analysis based on them, we may not update the charts. All charts in this report are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.
Disclaimer: The Weekly Market Reports are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any particular purposes of the Weekly Market Reports. Under no circumstances should the Weekly Market Reports be treated as financial advice. The author of this website is not a registered financial adviser. Before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.
Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data
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