The reports include a market position update, a stock market forecast, and an analysis of capital markets. To access the full report, you must subscribe to Premium Articles, Weekly Premium Articles, or All-in-One.
Weekly Market Report
- Ensemble performance.
- Weekly summary.
- Update on market positioning.
- Stock market forecast
- Capital markets update.
Section 2 of the report discusses this week’s tail events in the stock market, the performance of 60/40 portfolios, and also includes analysis about the possible timing of a bottom. In Section 5, we look at the current price trends in capital markets. The market positioning strategies indicate a new signal.
1. Ensemble performance
We use two long-only cross-sectional momentum strategies to generate signals for capital markets and factor ETFs. See Section 3 below for open positions and signal updates.
Year-to-date, the weekly strategies (WeeklyReport) are down 3.7% (equal allocation, no leverage) versus a loss of 13.5% for the SPY ETF.
Since 2024, the ensemble is up 21.4% versus 8% for the SPY ETF. The ensemble’s beta since 2017 is 0.46. The maximum drawdown was 17% in 2020, and the annualized return is 8.1%. The Sharpe ratio is 0.73. See Section 3 for details on market positioning.
2. Weekly summary (March 31–April 4, 2025)
- Stocks crashed after the introduction of massive tariffs.
- Large-cap stocks (SPY) ended the week with a 9.1% loss.
- Gold (GLD) fell 1.5% and commodities plunged 5.6%.
- Long-duration bonds (TLT) rallied 3.4% amid a “flight to quality.”
- The US dollar (UUP) ended the week down 0.9% amid rising volatility.
- Bitcoin (IBIT) gained 0.3% after a prolonged correlation with equities.
- Year-to-date, bonds (TLT) are up 7.4%, while gold (GLD) is gaining 15.5%, and large caps (SPY) are losing 13.5%. Commodities (DBC) are down 2%.
- The equally weighted Magnificent Seven stocks index plummeted 10.1% this week. For the third week in a row, Nvidia (NVDA) experienced the most significant decline, falling 14% for the week, while Apple (AAPL) dropped 13.6%. Microsoft (MSFT) was down the least, with a loss of 5%.
- Market sectors had significant losses this week, with energy (XLE) falling the most, by 14.8%. See below for more details.
Sector performance
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Specific disclaimer: This report includes charts that may reference price levels. If market conditions change the price levels or any analysis based on them, we may not update the charts. All charts in this report are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.
Disclaimer: The Weekly Market Reports are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any particular purposes of the Weekly Market Reports. Under no circumstances should the Weekly Market Reports be treated as financial advice. The author of this website is not a registered financial adviser. Before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.
Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data
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