The weekly market reports include a market position update, a stock market forecast, and an analysis of capital markets. To access the full report, you must subscribe to Premium Articles, Weekly Premium Articles, or All-in-One.
Weekly Market Report
- Ensemble performance.
- Weekly summary.
- Update on market positioning.
- Stock market forecast
- Capital markets update.
Section 2 of the report discusses a dominant self-fulfilling market prophecy. In Section 5, we look at the current price trends in capital markets.
1. Ensemble performance
We use two long-only cross-sectional momentum strategies to generate signals for capital markets and factor ETFs. See Section 3 below for open positions and signal updates.
Year-to-date, the weekly strategies (WeeklyReport) are down 0.4% (equal allocation, no leverage) versus a loss of 1.7% for the SPY ETF.
Since 2024, the ensemble is up 25.3% versus 22.7% for the SPY ETF. The ensemble’s beta since 2017 is 0.46, and correlation with the S&P 500 index is 0.73. There is a maximum drawdown of 17% and an annualized return of 8.6%. The Sharpe ratio is 0.78. See Section 3 for details on market positioning.
2. Weekly summary (March 3–March 7, 2025)
- Stocks had their worst weekly performance since September 2024.
- Large-cap stocks (SPY) ended the week with a 3.1% loss.
- Gold (GLD) gained 1.9% amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
- Long-duration bonds reversed direction. The TLT ETF fell 2.2% for the week.
- Commodities had mixed performance during the week. The DBC ETF fell 0.2%.
- Bitcoin (IBIT) gained 3.2%. See Section 5 for more details.
- Since January 3, 2022, bonds (TLT) have been down 32.5%, while gold (GLD) and large caps (SPY) have gained 57% and 26.7%, respectively.
- The equally weighted Magnificent Seven stocks index plunged 4.7% this week. All stocks fell except Google (GOOGL), which gained 2.1%. Tesla (TSLA) was down the most, by 10.4%.
- All market sectors were down this week except health care (XLV). See below for more details.
Sector performance
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Specific disclaimer: This report includes charts that may reference price levels. If market conditions change the price levels or any analysis based on them, we may not update the charts. All charts in this report are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.
Disclaimer: The Weekly Market Reports are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or actionable content. We do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, fitness, or timeliness for any particular purposes of the Weekly Market Reports. Under no circumstances should the Weekly Market Reports be treated as financial advice. The author of this website is not a registered financial adviser. Before subscribing, please read our Disclaimer and Terms and Conditions.
Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data
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