Premium Trader Education

A selection of premium articles, including free articles

We provide below a selection of premium articles and free articles about trading, including a selection of books. The articles cover topics such as classical technical analysis, trend-following, risk management, market statistics, backtesting, machine learning, portfolio allocation, hedge funds, indicators, strategies, trading math, and crypto. The articles are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or actionable content. Read the full disclaimer here.

Premium Articles or Market Signals subscriptions are required for access to the premium articles below. Access to premium books requires a separate book subscription.

Summary of contents

Type	Free	Premium
Books	1	2
Articles	54	140

Books

Free book

Subscribe for free notifications of blog posts and blog updates and upon confirmation receive the link to the free pdf book, Profitability and Systematic Trading (Wiley, 2008). Click here to subscribe.

Premium Books*

Fooled by Technical Analysis: The perils of charting, backtesting, and data-mining
15 Lies About Trading And Investing

*The premium books are sold separately. A book subscription is required for access.

Premium articles

Trend-following and momentum

All Actions In The Markets Amount To Forecasts
Trend Followers Make Forecasts
What is so Special About the 200-Day Moving Average?
Illusions of Long-Term Performance Charts
Academic Illusions About Moving Average Performance
Momentum and Trend-following Strategy Variants
Investing In the Stock Market Based on Golden Cross Signals
Jim Simons is Correct About Trend-Following
Why Trend Following is Hard
A Simple Explanation Of The Persistence Of The Momentum Anomaly
Momentum is Price Breakout
Three Reasons Why Momentum is Neglected
Price Series Momentum and Wishful Thinking
Momentum Versus Trend-following
Trend-Following Vs. Quasi-Buy and Hold
Does Trend Following Work on Stocks? Yes, Maybe, No

Trading, risk, and money management

The Secret to Profitable Trading
When Traders Fail
Why Trading is Hard
Position Sizing Based on Risk Ratio
Risk of Ruin For Dummies
The Primary Cause For Trader Failures
Optimal Position Size Methods and Other Misconceptions
Same Investments But Divergent Fortune
To Gamble Or Not To Gamble?
Log, Annualized, and Total Return
CAGR Illusions
Shorting the Stock Market is a Losing Proposition
The Amazing Small Edge of the Stock Market
Optimal Trading Using the Kelly Formula
Leverage, Margin, and Trading Account Capitalization
The Most Important Performance Measure
Maximizing Kelly
The Real Reasons Some Traders Lose
Modern Technical Analyst vs. Chartist
Kelly Leverage
SPY ETF Regular Trading Hours is Noise
Kelly Betting May Lead to Ruin
Trading and the Role of Luck
Random Trading Versus Trading Randomly
The Imperative of Tail Risk Hedging
The 2% Position Risk Rule: Facts and Fiction
When Random Traders Profit, It is Hard to Prove Skill
What Some Permabears Fail to Understand
Markets Are Algo-Event Driven
The Main Cause of Failure of Classical Technical Analysis
Chartists Debunked With Math
Chart Patterns Without Statistics is Naive Technical Analysis
Fooled By Upward Market Bias
Does It Pay to Worry About Tail Events in the Stock Market?

The dangers of backtesting and machine learning

Fooled by Random Backtesting
Look-Ahead Bias Detection
Major Misconceptions About Backtesting
Machine Learning in Quant Trading: Misconceptions and Wrong Applications
Curve-fitting and Optimization
Five Myths About Data-Mining Bias
Passive Investing Is An Over-Fitted Strategy
Ruined by Hypothesis Testing
Perils Of Statistical Hypothesis Testing
More on the Perils of Statistical Hypothesis Testing
The Fundamental Problem of Backtesting
A Trillion Ways To Be Fooled
Two Empirical Rules About Backtesting
Fooled by Multiple Comparisons
Selection and Data Mining Bias in Trading System Development

Portfolio allocation and market timing

Comparison Of Two Portfolio Allocations
Investing in European Stocks is Forex Bet
Forex As An Asset Class
How Risky Is The 60/40 Portfolio?
Portfolio Rebalancing is Market Timing
Perils of Asset Allocation Models
International vs. U.S. Stocks
Passive Investing Is An Over-Fitted Strategy
No Free Lunch In Portfolio Allocation
Wrong Investment Advice is Much Worse than Random Trading Tips
Timing versus Allocation
The Transition From Strategic To Tactical Asset Allocation
Walk Forward Optimization of the Stocks/Bonds Portfolio

Hedge funds

Two Facts About Hedge Funds
A Survival Guide For The Coming Hedge Fund War
Hedge Fund Edge Dynamics
Is Your Hedge Fund Using Your Money To Test Trading Strategies?
Quant Funds Must Have Realistic Targets
Hedge Fund Secrets

Indicators, strategies, and price action anomalies

Trading math

Win Rate, Profit Factor and Payoff Ratio
The Trading System Inversion Paradox
The Many Faces of Trading Expectation
Arithmetic Versus Geometric Mean Conundrum
What is a trading “edge”?
What is a trading “edge”? – Part II
Every Trader Should Know This Formula
Chartists and Trend-followers Need to Trade More Frequently
Projections of Closing Prices Required for Moving Averages to Cross
Probability Investing
Impact Of Volatility On Market Returns
Trading And Probabilities
Trading Math Question with Nearly 75% Wrong Answers
Standard Deviation Vs. Mean Absolute Deviation
How to Properly Calculate the Sharpe Ratio
Probability Puzzle Analysis and Relation to Trading Risk

Developing a trading strategy

Validation Methods For Trading Strategy Development
What Is Idiosyncratic Alpha?
A Few Practical Principles of Quantitative Trading
Fooled by Randomness and Monte Carlo Simulations
Systems, Lies, and Emotions
Fooled by Machine Learning Applied to Trading Algo Development
Precautionary Principle
Random Investing in High Tech Stocks
Fully Automated Trading Systems: A Dubious Idea

Free articles

See the complete list here

Interview with Legendary Investor Felix Grandluckmeister (Free)
A Significant Source of Risk for Equity Market Timing (Free)
Misuse And Abuse Of The Notion Of Probability (Free)
Fooled by Randomness, Over-fitting And Selection Bias (Free)
Counter-Intuitive Facts About Backtesting (Free)
Pitfalls of Using Software to Develop Trading Strategies (Free)
Curve-fitting and Optimization (Free)
Facts About Machine Designed Trading Systems (Free)
Fooled By Out of Sample Testing (Free)
Fooled By Monte Carlo Analysis (Free)
There Will Always Be Market Anomalies (Free)
Issues and Risks of Identifying Trading Strategies Suggested by the Data (Free)
Quant Trading Misconceptions (Free)
Trends And Trend-Following (Free)
Technical Analysis and Wealth Redistribution (Free)
“Textbook Patterns” are Broken Clocks (Free)
Classical Technical Analysis Indistinguishable From Astrology (Free)
A Significant Source of Risk for Equity Market Timing (Free)
Academics Avoid Equity Curves (Free)
Jim Simons: Trend-Following is Broken (Free)
Stock Market Bullish Charlatans (Free)
Perils of Forex Position Trading (Free)
Perils of Forex Day Trading (Free)
Perils of Futures Day Trading (Free)
Perils of Futures Position Trading (Free)
Detecting Anomalous Price Action in Daily Timeframe (Free)
Market Newsletters Overstate Performance (Free)
Stock Picking With Chart Analysis is 80s (Free)
Many Crypto Traders Need to Understand Zero-Sum Games (Free)
Multiplicative Process Growth is Not Necessarily Due to Bubble (Free)
Trading Strategy “Over-fitting” Is Not the Main Concern (Free)
Systematic Trading is Hard but Discretionary is Even Harder (Free)
Are Trading Strategies Based on the RSI2 Random? (Free)
An Example of Survivorship Bias in Trend-following (Free)
Structural Misinformation in Financial Markets (Free)
Common Sense Analysis of Strategy and Fund Performance (Free)
Risk Management Schemes By Rising Complexity (Free)

Papers, Presentations, and Interviews

Limitations of Quantitative Claims About Trading Strategy Evaluation (Free)
Forbes Interview (Free)
M4 Conference Presentation (Free)
Interview for Forbes (Free)

Selected articles in Medium [Free]

Medium and other sites
The Paradox Of The Elusive Market Edge
Feature Engineering For Algorithmic And Machine Learning Trading
Long/Short Equity Strategies And Machine Learning
Impact Of Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning on Trading And Investing
What Is Idiosyncratic Alpha?
Do Not Follow The System
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Machine Learning Replicating Simple Forecasting Methods
Quantopian Shutdown Offers Some Important Lessons
Physical Cash is Tail Risk Hedging

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Copyright Notice

Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated performance results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Hypothetical trading results are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.