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The chicken or egg causality dilemma raises a few intriguing questions about the impact of forecasts on market performance. Below are some thoughts. Near the end of every year, we always hear about forecasts for the next year, mainly for the ...

Since 1911, a losing streak of 9 or more days in the Dow Jones Industrial Average has occurred 26 times. Below are charts and statistics. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) last confirmed a 9-day losing streak on February 22, 1978. As ...

The “Santa Rally” performance in the last 32 years has been mostly due to three outliers, in 1997, 2008, and 2018. Apart from those three outliers, the performance has been essentially stagnant. The long-term expectation is probably zero. In this article, ...

In the last three years, there has been no “Santa Rally” in bitcoin, neither in the final two weeks of the year nor in the final week. Is there going to be one this year? In our analysis of the Santa ...

We present a quantitative measure of the relative potential of markets for relief rallies. Relief rallies usually occur during bear markets and can last from one to several days. Short covering typically triggers these rallies. The drivers could include news or ...

Despite lower returns since its inception, the crypto coin’s price has more than doubled this year. The momentum is due to a combination of politics and marketing that feed cognitive biases. This is the recipe for a bubble market. On January ...

Since 2022, large daily gains of more than 2.5% in TLT ETF have been more frequent. In addition, these large daily gains have not provided a signal of a market bottom. On Monday, November 25, 2024, the TLT ETF rallied 2.5%. ...

The three weekly trading strategies trade ETFs and large-cap stocks long only. The rules of two of the strategies are based on the PSI5 algorithm. Below, we display the ensemble performance of the three weekly strategies, assuming equal allocation. There is ...

The market needs another positive story. Some people understand that the old stories are fading away, and the new stories will not only serve as drivers of equity returns but may also disentangle humanity from conflicts. We provide a chart with ...

One of the common misconceptions about trading and investing is that the Sharpe ratio is not a reliable indicator of risk-adjusted returns because it punishes “good” volatility. There are many articles in the financial blogosphere and posts on financial social media ...