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Trend following is not a specific trading method but a large variety of methods that emerge from the high complexity of markets. As a result, depending on the method used, the performance of a group of trend followers exhibits high ...

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Avoiding the market pain during periods of turmoil by staying on the sidelines is often the cause of missing the next opportunity and even never recovering previous losses. When the going gets tough in trading, the tough get going. Here ...

After a negative 7-sigma two-day drop last week in the S&P 500 index, yesterday there was a positive 9-sigma rally. These tail events are rare and have historically occurred during large corrections and bear markets. After a two-day 10.5% drop on April ...

Bonds, gold, commodities, and managed futures have not delivered a hedge during this correction. Bitcoin has disappointed. Only long volatility has provided a hedge. Gold (GLD) and bonds (TLT) have provided a hedge to stocks (SPY) year-to-date, but not during the ...

After a rare 7-sigma drop in the stock market, macro analysts should consider their recent analysis, and tactical asset allocators should not celebrate any outperformance. The markets are in an “unforgiving regime.” A two-day drop of more than 10% in the ...

Although many analysts and market participants associate the stock market drop on April 3, 2025, with the tariff announcement, the market has been looking for an excuse to correct since at least January of this year. The nearly 5% drop on ...

The frequency of “reflex rallies” occurring in stock market downtrends has diminished after the GFC bear market. New financial products and crowded trades may have imposed a regime change. For simplicity, we define a downtrend in stocks as the condition when ...

The long-term performance of highly leveraged ETN products depends on the duration and depth of the drawdowns of the underlying instrument. Depending on the volatility of the underlying, these products may not deliver the leveraged performance for holding periods longer ...

Predictions of when the next bear market will arrive are futile exercises and they focus on the wrong problem. A better problem to focus on is how to minimize the inevitable losses. When it comes to forecasting bear markets and large ...