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Predictions of when the next bear market will arrive are futile exercises and they focus on the wrong problem. A better problem to focus on is how to minimize the inevitable losses. When it comes to forecasting bear markets and large ...

Are the new China, emerging markets, and Eurozone bulls the old US permabulls? We should make some exceptions for those who are market timers, but it may as well be the case.  From 2015 to the end of 2024, the SPY ...

Managed futures are not providing a hedge to equity investors year-to-date, on average. A failure to provide a hedge also occurred in 2011 and 2018. There is no guarantee that an investment in alternatives will provide a hedge to equity investors. ...

Stock market bulls do not fear shorts because they know they can squeeze them out of the market. Bulls fear other bulls who might sell stocks when fundamentals and technicals get weak. Stock bulls would like to see technicals getting worse ...

Despite its simplicity, it is unlikely that most macroeconomic and discretionary technical analysts will outperform this difficult-to-beat strategy over sufficiently long time periods. This article was updated on February 11, 2025 Traders and investors can use a simple momentum strategy as a ...

Even if we view the US stock market as a quasi-Ponzi scheme, investing in it makes sense as long as the underlying drivers of returns remain intact. But do these returns translate to a tax on future generations? A Ponzi scheme ...

Despite their popularity, mainly in the retail space, mean reversion strategies have a huge optimization space due to a large number of possible rules and parameters. Numerous accounts on social media present backtests of mean reversion strategies mainly for stocks and ...

Due to artificial intelligence turmoil, on January 27, 2025, there was a nearly 4-sigma divergence between high beta and low volatility large caps. A few things you should know. On January 27, 2025, due to turmoil in the artificial intelligence space ...

Despite massive deficit spending, the performance of the stock market in the last 15 years has not even come close to what was realized in the 1990s. What does this ultimately mean? Here is an attempt to provide clues. Massive quantitative ...

Commodities are on the rise and may outperform stocks, based on recent political and economic developments. Since 2022, commodities ($CRB) are up 33.9%, stocks ($SPXTR) are up 31.9%, the US dollar index ($USDX) has gained 14.3%, and the 20+ year bond ...