Free Blog

Extreme overbought and oversold conditions might be one of the top causes of technical trader failures. All technical indicators have good and bad aspects. It is often hard for traders to benefit from the good aspects and easy to get ruined ...

The recovery of the 60/40 portfolio has been slow and even painful. We include performance results for three different portfolios. As far back as June 2017, I warned the readers and subscribers of this blog about the high correlation of the ...

The long-only mean-reversion strategy for trading SPY and QQQ is based on two popular indicators.

There is no bull market yet, and mainstream media announcements are premature. I propose a more robust metric for deciding when a new bull market starts after a correction. The mainstream financial media rushed last week to announce a new bull ...

This article provides an update on the performance of the PSI5 strategy applied in divergent (trend-following) mode to 23 futures contracts in the daily and weekly timeframes. The PSI5 algo is not data-mined but based on a formula that models price action ...

Some traders are puzzled when both the VIX index and the SPY ETF end with the same return sign for a day, but that is nothing unusual and a frequent occurrence. Days with the same sign for the VIX index and ...

The short-term trend-following trading strategy for futures described in this article makes use of features generated by machine learning in the weekly timeframe. Most developers of long-short strategies use standard machine learning algos and common features. We use machine learning to ...

It may be “transitory”, but CTA replication is not working well this year. As shown below, year-to-date (June 1, 2023), the SG Trend and CTA indexes are down 1.88% and 1.48%, respectively, but the DBMF ETF is down 8.1%. The spread between ...

We consider a basic strategic allocation and apply timing and leverage. The result is a dynamic tactical allocation that can generate high-leveraged alpha at relatively low risk. 

We constantly read on social media or listen to podcasts about financial media celebrities’ market calls, but they rarely provide any updates. “The stock market will fall.” “I am long gold.” “I am short the US dollar.” “Commodities will rise.” “Buy bonds, short energy.” The list ...