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The belief that the US dollar and commodities are negatively correlated is probably due to recency bias. The correlations between financial assets are probably random variables and regime-dependent. It is safe to assume that we do not have a large enough ...

In this article, we analyze the impact of dynamic stops on the performance of a  trend-following strategy with futures contracts. Our backtests did not find any significant performance improvement. 

While quant traders and some evidence-based investors understand the methods and statistics used, marketing erodes their meaning by transforming them into elements used in narratives. Marketing often uses terminology from statistics and strategy development to create artificial images to attack and ...

The classic trend-following with breakouts has not worked well with major forex pairs after 2015, although it has offered an exceptionally high skew. We backtested the classic trend-following strategy involving one entry, one exit, and a stop-loss, with seven major currency ...

There is excitement in the financial community that GPT will offer a trading or investing edge. Nothing can be further from the truth. Advanced information processing tools increase market efficiency and decrease the significance of any edges for investing and trading. ...

Macroeconomic interpretations have started rivaling those of quantum mechanics. Is the economy in a recession or not? It seems the answer depends on the measurements taken in the face of ever-increasing macroeconomic complexity. We are not in the 1950s, 1970s, or ...

Classic trend-following appears to work well even without stop-losses, but the drawdown is higher. Classic trend-following involves one entry signal, one exit signal, and a stop-loss. According to some trend-followers, you do not need additional plumbing for trend-following; the classic method ...

Dollar-cost averaging is a controversial risk-management investment method, but unavoidable when the commitment of a large capital cannot be made. This article is about a recent discussion on social media about the merits of the method and its nature. In a ...

Passive investors in the US equity markets are the worst gamblers due to the frequent risk of uncle point in the form of large corrections. Since 1943, the S&P 500 index has been in a correction of more than 20% from ...

Lately, retail traders are being targeted by another round of hype involving high annualized returns from trading strategies that are unrealistic but relatively simple to understand and backtest. I first provide the general structure of the bogus trading strategies that are ...