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We will be introducing a new strategy in the next Weekly Market Signals report for long/short factors. The strategy will be integrated with the ensemble of current strategies starting next year. Our weekly Market Signal report is currently based on the ...

As compared to the previous two bear markets, the current correction is not more orderly, but is faster and marked by higher volatility. There have been references to the current correction as “more orderly”. Words mapped to markets make sense only ...

Updated October 10, 2022. A long-short mean-reversion strategy for trading a portfolio consisting of SPY, QQQ, and TLT ETFs.

Inflation is the (adverse) result of the interaction of a large number of variables in a highly non-linear economic system. It’s also a humbling process for those who rush to make forecasts about inflation levels. In my M4 presentation in New ...

When inflation and rates rise, equities and bonds fall. If commodities are also volatile, there is capital destruction because there is no safe asset. Unrealized gains and losses become transitory. The right strategies are known only in hindsight. Descriptive statistics reflect ...

Several charts have surfaced that claim 2008 and 2022 market price actions are similar. The charts allude to a continuing market decline. Visual chart comparisons can be misleading. In this article, we calculate the relationship in the data and point to ...

Last week, crude oil futures fell $11, the popular XLE ETF plunged 17%, and many energy stocks crashed. Is this the end of the energy rally? First, let us look at some data from last week. We start with a drop ...

Risk accumulates slowly but also happens fast. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 10% in the last four trading days. This is a 5-sigma event based on an available sample of daily returns since 1942. The S&P 500 fell into a bear ...

In recent years ETFs have moved beyond passive index tracking. There are many actively managed and thematic ETFs that claim to offer retail access to the edges of institutional investing and hedge funds. Recent experience with many of those ETFs ...

Many retail traders and investors cannot wait to read the next social media post or article from their favorite fund manager because they think this way they will gain a market edge. On the contrary, in many cases, they are ...