- What’s Driving the Bitcoin Rally? December 3, 2024
Despite lower returns since its inception, the crypto coin’s price has more than doubled this year. The momentum is due to a combination of politics and marketing that feed cognitive biases. This is the recipe for a bubble market. On January ...
- Frequency of Large Gains in TLT ETF November 29, 2024
Since 2022, large daily gains of more than 2.5% in TLT ETF have been more frequent. In addition, these large daily gains have not provided a signal of a market bottom. On Monday, November 25, 2024, the TLT ETF rallied 2.5%. ...
- Three Weekly Trading Strategies November 26, 2024
The three weekly trading strategies trade ETFs and large-cap stocks long only. The rules of two of the strategies are based on the PSI5 algorithm. Below, we display the ensemble performance of the three weekly strategies, assuming equal allocation. There is ...
- The Stock Market Needs a Good Story November 24, 2024
The market needs another positive story. Some people understand that the old stories are fading away, and the new stories will not only serve as drivers of equity returns but may also disentangle humanity from conflicts. We provide a chart with ...
- Sharpe or Sortino Ratio? November 20, 2024
One of the common misconceptions about trading and investing is that the Sharpe ratio is not a reliable indicator of risk-adjusted returns because it punishes “good” volatility. There are many articles in the financial blogosphere and posts on financial social media ...
- The Big Picture Cognitive Bias November 12, 2024
Markets are non-stationary, and the big picture constantly changes. Understanding the big picture is a daunting, if not impossible, task, yet this futile exercise is appealing to many traders and investors. Some analysts, traders, and investors often argue that understanding the ...
- Vague Market Forecasts Always Win November 8, 2024
Besides bluffing, liquidity search, and irrational investment decisions, vague market forecasts present high risks for the unsophisticated crowds. Every day on the financial mainstream and social media, some experts or analysts make forecasts about the direction of capital markets. Some think ...
- The Market Analysis Guessing Game November 4, 2024
Market analysis has a poor track record owing to biases and complexity. Fundamentals have lost most of their predictive power due to interventions in the markets in the form of quantitative easing and deficit spending. Market analysis biases Due to its inherent ...
- The Magnificent 7 is META November 3, 2024
Investing in the META stock since 2022 has yielded a return comparable to an equal allocation to the seven magnificent stocks. This chart confirms that the average performance of the magnificent seven stocks has nearly matched the performance of the META ...
- 8 Strategies for Traders and Investors October 30, 2024
We include backtest results for eight strategies for traders and investors in various timeframes and markets. All strategies trade liquid ETFs, and the backtests include $0.01 per share in commissions and slippage. This is just a sample of the Price Action ...