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  • Market Scans- April 14, 2020 [Premium Insights] April 15, 2020

    The S&P 500 index has gained 27.2% in the last 15 trading days since March 24, 2020. Below are the results of a few market scans and related charts. 

  • Using Norgate Data With DLPAL Software April 14, 2020

    Instructions on how to use the Export Task Manager of Norgate Data updater to export data for use with DLPAL software. When using historical data in backtests or for generating signals it is important to have the cleanest series possible. Free ...

  • S&P 500 Daily and Annual Return Statistics April 12, 2020

    Daily S&P 500 returns have a highly leptokurtic distribution, but annual returns are close to normal. What does this mean for traders and investors? Below is the distribution of daily returns for the S&P 500 from 08/1940 to 04/09/2020. This is a ...

  • 7 1/2 Weeks April 10, 2020

    In 7 1/2 weeks the following two events occurred in the stock market: the S&P 500 index fell 34% from all-time closing highs and then rallied about 25%. Below is the S&P 500 chart with drawdown levels from highest close: The table ...

  • Massive Stock Market Gains But Repeat of 2008 Pattern Highly Probable April 7, 2020

    The S&P 500 index surged 7% yesterday and the first calls of a V-bottom recovery surfaced in financial media and blogosphere. However, a repeat of the 2008 pattern is a possibility. Relevant charts are included. As the chart below shows, the ...

  • Academic-Practitioner Gap and Momentum Hindsight April 3, 2020

    There is a gap between what academics look for in market analysis and what practitioners want but this has been underestimated or even undermined. The academic often looks at the results of some mathematical operations and determines if the effect they ...

  • Year-to-Date Performance of Popular Trend-Following and Mean-Reversion Strategies [Premium Insights] March 30, 2020

    Monitoring the performance of strategies during crisis periods is important to the success of trading and tactical investing.  Below are performance results of six trend-following and two mean-reversion popular strategies year-to-date. Access to article requires Premium Insights subscription.

  • Unprecedented Drop In Autocorrelation March 29, 2020

    In the last two weeks there was an unprecedented drop in autocorrelation of daily S&P 500 returns. What does this mean for the market, trading and investing? Below is a daily chart of S&P 500 since 1940 with the 1-lag, 252-day ...

  • Bull Markets Inside Bear Markets March 27, 2020

    The medium to longer-term trend is more important that any intermediate counter-trend rallies. Yesterday, Josh Brown made a reference to a fact about the market most have already forgotten or even never experienced as investors or traders. https://twitter.com/ReformedBroker/status/1243292510564356096?s=20 I remember those bull markets ...

  • Pandemic Trilemma March 26, 2020

    A new “impossible trinity” has emerged due to the pandemic. Many are familiar with the “impossible trinity” in economics: Now with the unfortunate “white swan” of a pandemic, the following trilemma has emerged: A.  Lockdown and focus on public heath will adversely affect ...