- The Asymmetry of Up Versus Down Days in the Stock Market December 7, 2023
Different market regimes may give rise to asymmetries that can persist for many years or even decades. This is the story of the up-versus-down asymmetry in the stock market. A financial media post yesterday included a chart that showed the asymmetry ...
- The Data Refutes Gold Selloff Sensationalism December 5, 2023
Financial media loves sensationalism when there is a selloff in the markets, but the data often refutes it. Yesterday, there was a selloff in the precious metals markets following a strong rally. Gold (GLD) fell 2.2%, and silver (SLV) lost 3.7%. ...
- Lack of Discipline and Objectives Might Cause Ruin November 28, 2023
Many traders and investors lack discipline and clear objectives. Spasmodic actions lead to losses and might eventually cause uncle point, or even ruin. Passive investors Let us start with passive investors because of the dominance of this style. Looking at daily price ...
- Stock Market Diversification Underperforms Passive Indexing November 17, 2023
Many investors are searching for the next Nvidia, Apple, or Tesla. Naïve diversification may not capture the future big winners. These investors may be better off with passive index investing. Identifying the next big stock market winners is not trivial at ...
- Market Timing Does Not Predict Returns November 9, 2023
There is a recurring theme in the financial mainstream media about market timing being ineffective because a small number of large returns drive stock market performance. The conclusion is disconnected from the facts. Summary Market timing is often argued to be ineffective ...
- How Trading Has Changed Over The Years November 8, 2023
Trading has changed significantly over the years Trading is a complex subject, and analyzing how it has changed over the years requires a paper or even a book for an in-depth analysis. I focus on how changing market regimes have affected ...
- ETF Seasonality Strategy with Low Exposure and Positive Skew November 6, 2023
The ETF seasonality strategy trades long-only SPY, TLT, and GLD ETFs.
- CTAs the Target of Short Squeeze in Equity and Bond Markets November 4, 2023
Commodity Trading Advisors, who were short the equity and bond markets, were the main targets of a major short squeeze this week. Systematic traders who were out of the market missed potential gains. Summary Rare weekly moves in the stock and bond ...
- Some Economists Are Claiming Victory For Tossing Coins October 28, 2023
Some economists are claiming victory for their predictions of no recession this year. Tossing a fair coin is hardly a prediction and does not justify a victory lap. Some economists predicted a recession this year, while others insisted there would not ...
- The S&P 500 Broke A Historic Win Streak of 15 Up Mondays October 24, 2023
A historic, yet unexplainable, win streak of 15 consecutive Mondays was broken on October 23, 2023. Here are the details. The S&P 500 index fell 0.17% on Monday, October 23, 2023, after a historic winning streak of 15 consecutive Mondays. The gain ...
