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Successful speculators search for bubble opportunities while the unsuccessful ones complain about them and stay on the sidelines. Bubbles operate as wealth transfer mechanisms from those that join the game late – usually bears who give up and morph into bulls ...

This is an example of a machine designed trading system for the E-mini futures contract. The trading system was designed using data from 01/02/2001 to 12/31/2012.  Since the beginning of this year to 11/20/2013 the system return is 12.7% for initial trading capital of $50,000 per contract and this return turns ...

If one looks at a long-term chart of SPY it appears that the stock market is the best passive investment in spite of the -55% drawdown in 2008, which for some was a chance to average down and increase returns. ...

In a recent post I demonstrated that frequent short-term and intraday forex trading are negative-sum games when spread is included. In the case of intraday forex trading, this is true even at low spreads. Here I demonstrate that E-mini intraday trading is a negative-sum game ...

In a post yesterday in The Reformed Broker about the Barron’s cover story Josh Brown admits there are a few bubbles out there “in some areas of tech and in the IPO market.” In my humble opinion any argument that tries ...

Although the S&P 500 index is on an uptrend since March of 2009, technically speaking there have been at least 4 major trends during that period. Actually the uptrend that started in 2009 is more of a post hoc realization. The major ...

The inverse head and shoulders/double bottom massive pattern in TLT that was mentioned in a post two weeks ago failed spectacularly with the last blow delivered on Friday when 10-Year Note yields rose 5.4%, 14 basis points in one day. This failure ...

Based on a simulation of 20,000 random long/short systems trading EURUSD using daily data, the percentage of winners turns out to be a number statistically indistinguishable from 0 even in the presence of 1:1 leverage and when spread and slippage are in the range of 2 ...

Is your fund doing better this year so far than the average of a large number of traders tossing coins to trade the market? Given that the buy and hold return (less dividends) of SPY is close to 20% YTD, ...

A massive head and shoulders top in GOOG has compelled many naive chartists to short the stock in anticipation of a huge down move. Instead, a huge up move took place on Friday crashing the dreams and hopes of those who ...