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  • How to Properly Calculate the Sharpe Ratio November 16, 2020

    The Sharpe ratio is an important metric for evaluating performance in finance world. However, calculations of this ratio in backtesting and portfolio tracking software are usually not accurate. In this article, we present the main reason for the discrepancies and ...

  • Russell 2000/NASDAQ-100 Largest Ever Divergence and What It Could Mean [Premium Articles] November 10, 2020

    On Monday, November 9, 2020, there was the largest ever divergence between Russell 2000 and NASDAQ-100. Small caps rallied 3.7% while tech stocks fell -2.2%. In this article we discuss what this large divergence could mean for the market. Access ...

  • Equal-Weight Vs. Cap-Weighted S&P 500 Chart Recency Bias [Premium Articles] November 5, 2020

    Year-to-date, the equal-weight S&P 500 total return index is down 1.13% while the capitalization-weight total return index is gaining 8.22%. The wide divergence between the two indexes yesterday has prompted a new round of chart analysis plagued by recency bias. ...

  • Probability Puzzle Analysis and Relation to Trading Risk October 13, 2020

    The poll results of the probability puzzle in Twitter on October 11, 2020, showed that risk of ruin is often underestimated. In this article, we discuss how this puzzle is related to trading and risk. Access to the article requires ...

  • Fooled By Upward Market Bias September 29, 2020

    Technical and fundamental analysts, and even some quasi-quant types who are forecasting the continuation of the stock market uptrend due to the formation of patterns, are often fooled by the market upward bias. Access to the article requires a premium ...

  • Hurst Indicator: Conditions for False Signals [Premium Articles] September 24, 2020

    The Hurst Indicator may identify the start of major market tops and corrections but there are certain conditions under which it may generate false or no signals. 

  • Investment Banks Are Becoming Desperate [Premium Articles] August 25, 2020

    This is an example of investment bank research departments becoming desperate but finding support from financial journalists. Access to full article requires Premium Articles subscription.

  • Does It Pay to Worry About Tail Events in the Stock Market? August 18, 2020

    Investors and traders may not benefit from worrying about market tail risk and may even underperform the market. Dealing with tail risk is a complex task. Access to the article requires a premium subscription

  • Two Important But Rarely Discussed S&P 500 Indicators [Premium Articles] July 17, 2020

    These two indicators of S&P 500 price action are rarely discussed but are nevertheless interesting to know because they reveal strength of the market. 

  • Reflexivity and How it Affects Price Action July 2, 2020

    Market participants should understand reflexivity and how it affects price action. It is clear from social media posts that many market participants do not understand the impact of reflexivity on market behavior. Access to the article requires a premium subscription.