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Fooled By Technical Analysis

Fooled by Technical Analysis: The perils of charting, backtesting, and data-mining, is available on a subscription basis. This is an online book and if you subscribe you will not get a hard copy or a PDF. You can use your username and password to read the book online. (Free extensions of the subscription period will be provided upon request.)

 

 

 

Last revision: November 18, 2023
Language: English
270+ pages (6″ x 9″ )
75 high-quality charts
Available online only
Table of  Contents

 

 

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It was about time that someone spoke up about the perils of chart analysis, back-testing, and data mining clearly and honestly. In this book, you will learn why naïve chartists and quants have no chance of profiting from trading the markets and how expert chartists and quants attempt to maximize their winning odds. Many examples illustrate the points made in the book.

You will learn why:

  • Classical chart patterns are mostly unprofitable.
  • Chart analysis has a shaky logical foundation.
  • Statistical hypothesis testing is not applicable in system development.
  • The expectation formula deceives naïve quants.
  • Out-of-sample validation tests should be avoided.
  • Walk-forward optimization and Monte Carlo analysis are ineffective.
  • Frequent backtesting almost always leads to failure.
  • Most intraday traders fail, and many get ruined.
  • Experienced chart traders do not use patterns for market timing. 
  • Focusing on invalidating strategies is important.

 

 You will also learn about:

  • The limitations of backtesting and its proper use
  • Data-mining and data-snooping bias
  • Processes that contribute to data-mining bias
  • Popular myths about data-mining bias
  • The pitfalls of strategy validation tests
  • Effective trading system validation tests
  • Determining capital requirements and position size for system trading
  • The current alternatives to technical analysis
  • Cognitive biases that plague chart analysis
  • The effects of trading friction and trading timeframes on profitability

 

 

and much more.

Click here for the full table of contents. You may subscribe below.

Price: $65. A free extension of the subscription period will be provided upon request before the membership expires. Bonus: A free subscription to the book 15 Lies About Trading And Investing.

Terms

Online book subscribers do not receive a hard copy, ebook, or PDF. Instead, they can use the username and password selected below to read the books online. Note: There are no refunds for cancellations. After subscribing, you can download a receipt from your subscription details page. 

Subscription auto-renew option: This option is checked by default. If you do not wish your subscription to auto-renew, you may uncheck the Auto-Renew option before registering. Auto-renew can be canceled from account details at any time. 

There is no access to other premium content. Online book subscribers cannot access other premium content unless the subscription is upgraded for that purpose.

No credit card or bank details are stored in our system. You may register a new account below. After the registration is processed, you will be directed to PayPal, where you can pay with a PayPal account or with a credit card. If, after registration, payment is not completed or canceled for some reason, you can always log on to our website and complete just this part of the process.

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One Year Subscription to the books Fooled By Technical Analysis and 15 Lies About Trading And Investing

© 2015–2023. Michael Harris. All Rights Reserved. Any unauthorized copy, reproduction, distribution, publication, display, modification, or transmission of any part of this blog is strictly prohibited without prior written permission.

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CFTC RULE 4.41

Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated performance results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Hypothetical trading results are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

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